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The ending of these probes into Polymarket is phenomenal news. Shayne is a real one. He's a genuinely good dude. I'm feeling like I should write a little about this guy, because I am sure his life was hell last November.
A few years ago, probably late 2020, in the first convo I ever had with Shayne, I came away from it that he was (yet another) big idea guy who had the silly notion to create a prediction market from scratch. I honestly thought it would fail and didn't take him or Polymarket seriously. Markets like this have been tried and mostly failed over and over and over again. Even on crypto, sites like Augur, Catnip, BetMoose (yes, that is a real name), along with dozens of companies you've never heard of. Some sort of succeeded, for short periods of time. But none of them ever REALLY lived up to the potential or vision. So my initial report back on the Polymarket team to friends was: idealistic kids, in over their heads, don't bother joining.
But what I didn't realize after that first conversation was how singularly obsessed Shayne was with bringing all of this to life. It wasn't just some random business idea from an incubator: he was a true believer in the whole enterprise. He had a vision for what he wanted this company to be, and he was implementing it. Brick by brick.
From when I made my first deposit to Polymarket in 2021 of $100 (still convinced it would probably fail) all the way through me doing hundreds of millions of dollars in volume in 2024, Shayne was messaging me on a constant basis: how do I make this site better. Over and over and over again. Always trying to improve. Always trying to grow. Never content. Focused on the big picture.
If you compare Polymarket in 2021 to how it exists in 2025, it is unrecognizably more professional, more sophisticated, and more complex. And the crazy part is: it is all on the blockchain. They had to invent half of the features and capabilities on the site, because it didn't otherwise exist (and shout out to the team of engineers who made it happen).
Shayne also told me in the early days, circa 2021 -- me, just a decently successful PredictIt bettor who fell into doing this as a mildly successful career -- prediction markets are going to be big, you're going to make a lot of money, and people are going to know who you are (relatively speaking lol). And my reaction was to laugh. What a dumb thing to say. This was such a niche space. It was an oddity. There was enough money for a decent living and that was it. In real world terms, the absolute pinnacle of the career would be a lightly used Audi and a mortgage payment.
But not only was he correct in his promises, but he is the one who built it.
Telling people I do prediction markets has gone from "...wtf is that?" to "...oh, like Polymarket?" in the span of a few years. Shayne did that.
So when this genuinely good dude had his door busted down in November, I was shocked. There's so much casual criming going on in the world that I couldn't believe that anyone had the time or resources for THAT. Ridiculous. I'm not normally one for conspiracies, but the whole thing did - and still does - seem at least a little politically motivated to me.
So full credit to this guy for weathering that storm, for getting through it. I am sure it wasn't remotely easy.
And if you're wondering whether it has deterred him or changed him at all? Answer: I've received 30+ messages in the past week from Shayne with ideas on how to further improve the site.

2025年7月15日
8ヶ月前、選挙の夜、Polymarketが選挙を呼びかけた後、私たちは世界のトップに立っていました。
8日後、FBIは午前6時に私のドアを壊し、私のコンピューターと電話をすべて取り上げ、不正行為を暗示する可能性のあるものを探しました。
トラウマ的要因ではあったが、ポリマーケットの正確さとそれに続く抵抗の物語を、アメリカ政治の歴史に刻み込むことになった。
そして今日、この物語の章が終わったことをお知らせできることを嬉しく思います。
協力し、関与した後、私たちは不正行為から解放されました。正義が勝った。
ゴッド・ブレス・アメリカ 🇺🇸

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