So far so bad.

This paper confirms what you already know. The dumbest, most narcissistic, most psychopathic individuals are the winners on social media.

Before you start thinking “this time is different” remember that this market is being driven by putting $1 in a box and selling it for $2

I don’t see a clear reason why DATs would sell their crypto when mNAV falls below 1 Yes, selling crypto to repurchase shares optimizes the NAV/share and pushes mNAV higher but…. so what? I suspect they’ll be more willing to trade at a discount than to sell the asset they’ve proclaimed will out perform for decades to come. I view an unwind as admitting a weakness in the structure Maybe some of the smaller DATs will try this in an attempt to differentiate, but feels doubtful for the big three - MSTR, BMNR, SBET The unwind will be slow and drawn out imo. I don’t think mgmt rolls over easily That said, the issue for broader markets is DATs cannot sell shares to purchase more crypto when mNAV falls below 1, as it’s no longer value accretive to shareholders. Their crypto bid grinds to a halt MSTR has already declared it will no longer sell common stock to raise cash and buy BTC while mNAV is below 2.5 (currently around 1.7) SBET is kicking its feet of 1.0 right now, so I expect them to slow their rate of new issuance to buy ETH With those two out/slowing, that only leaves BMNR actively selling shares to accumulate ETH I see the big three as the most meaningful drivers of markets right now, by far. Their purchases feel to be the shots heard round the world, catalyzing others to follow When MSTR smashed *$20b* into BTC during Q4 last year, Bitcoin inflows were white hot while ETHs were meh Now with BMNR, SBET, and the other ETH treasury companies having accumulated over $10b of ETH (2% of supply!) since June, ETH ETF inflows are outperforming BTC by a considerable margin Net net I see the fundraising activity from these three names as the single most important data in markets today, and it’s looking weaker by the day

The best thing I have read in a while ... Some good stuff on trading, adaptation, humility, etc.

The best thing I have read in a while ... Some good stuff on trading adaptation humility etc

Throwing a football over a house and running through to catch it

From the @donnelly_brent am/FX letter today. Wheeee! "Gold and silver are struggling to make upside headway, even as risky assets moon, crypto rips, yields fall, Fed pricing turns more dovish, an unorthodox dove and USD bear is nominated to the Fed, and the government continues to introduce a new form of economic nationalism with an export tax on chips and in-person presidential vetting of the CEO of a private company, Intel."

Imagine living as the 2 of clubs. Constantly tossed away. Only true friend is the Ace of clubs or a fellow deuce. Sad existence.