Musings of the Day, 8/4/25: Correct (referring to comment at bottom). Without the US Consumer as the Safety Valve, RoW will have no choice but to Tariff China.
Michael Kao
Michael Kao31.7.2025
Here’s the problem with the Runaway Tariff Inflation thesis. Services are already in DEFLATION. Retailers have absorbed 70% of Tariff increases thus far, for good reason — fear of Demand Destruction. What little Goods Inflation results WILL result in Demand Destruction, which means that the endless stream of goods from China’s Runaway Assembly Line get dumped in the EU and RoW. The inevitable result is that the EU and RoW are forced to erect their own Tariff barriers to China. It would not surprise me if the resultant GLUT of Chinese goods might have to clear at even lower prices NET of Tariffs, stacking Goods Deflation on top of Services Deflation. Where’s the ultimate safety valve for China? CNY/CNH DEVALUATION.
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