熱門話題
#
Bonk 生態迷因幣展現強韌勢頭
#
有消息稱 Pump.fun 計劃 40 億估值發幣，引發市場猜測
#
Solana 新代幣發射平臺 Boop.Fun 風頭正勁
Musings of the Day, 4/28/25:
As I am Chinese by descent, I get the whole angle of Chinese national pride in being able to “吃苦” (Eat Bitterness) and endure hardship.
But the math is the math.
When your entire economy is based upon keeping the Runaway Assembly Line humming, not because of Economic Profit or Demand, but because THERE IS NO OTHER WAY TO KEEP THE MASSES EMPLOYED, it really behooves you to find a way to make good with the US Consumer that buys 35% of GLOBAL CONSUMPTION.
Talking with my Retailer CEO friends, PERMANENT decisions to relocate Supply Chains out of China are being made with every day that this Tariff War goes on.
So yeah, the US is beholden to 4-year Election Cycles, yada yada, but China is at risk of SECULAR Economic Collapse if this Tariff War even goes on for ONE year.
Trump 2.0 needs to provide a Face-Saving Exit Strategy for China, and Xi needs to take it.
能源安全 = 地緣政治安全
我希望這能給歐盟和美國敲響警鐘，讓電網穩定和非間歇性能源至關重要。
如果你想看看如果這種情況持續兩周，現代社會會發生什麼，請閱讀威廉·福斯特欽 （William Forstchen） 的_One第二After_。提示：Flies__Lord。
即使中國已經將西方拉入 Gretaverse 並關閉其燃煤發電廠和核電廠，它也做了相反的事情，建立了煤炭/核能的交接拳頭。
去年，我在丹尼森大學（Denison University）做了一次關於這個主題的客座講座：
美國做多資源，但做空政策。
中國短缺資源，但多頭政策。
2025年4月28日
Just in.
Mass Blackouts in Spain, Portugal and in part of France.
Every single part of digital life from shops, to traffic lights, hospitals, airports, phones, and trains, all down.
@briangobosox 他們是否自焚取決於他們。
我認為這是發生的事情：
2025年4月24日
As you know, I’m thinking of Tariffs in two broad categories: Long Term Incentive Modifiers and Short Term Negotiation Tools.
At the end of the day, if were advising @realDonaldTrump and @SecScottBessent, I would make the upcoming Sector Tariffs the LT Incentive Modifiers and set them at a rate that will not completely shut things down, but truly encourage behavioral change in Critical Path Industries (think Energy, Minerals, Chips, Ships, and Drugs).
The poll I took yesterday gives some hints as to what these Tariff levels might be. See below.
Trade these against relaxing the Reciprocal Tariffs (ST Negotiation Tools) to something close to zero on non-Critical Path Industries.
At the end of the day, who cares where our T-shirts and Tchotchkes are made? The cheaper the better.
But we MUST be smart of targeting Critical Path Industries to achieve LT behavioral change.
回到關稅戰。
FWIW，我認為特朗普 2.0 不會或應該放棄我所說的“長期激勵調節劑”關稅。
也許是一個棘輪機構來給調整時間？
這就是我要建議管理員的。
2025年4月24日
如您所知，我正在考慮將關稅分為兩大類：長期激勵修正和短期談判工具。
歸根結底，如果要@realDonaldTrump和@SecScottBessent提供建議，我會將即將到來的行業關稅設為 LT 激勵修正符，並將它們設定為不會完全關閉事物，但真正鼓勵關鍵路徑行業（想想能源、礦產、晶元、船舶和藥物）的行為改變。
我昨天進行的民意調查提供了一些關於這些關稅水準的提示。見下文。
將這些與在非 Critical Path Industries 上將互惠關稅 （ST Negotiation Tools） 放寬到接近零的水準進行交易。
歸根結底，誰在乎我們的 T 恤和 Tchotchkes 是在哪裡生產的？越便宜越好。
但我們必須聰明地瞄準 Critical Path Industries，以實現 LT 行為改變。
😂😂😂
正如我之前在今天的 Musing 中提到的，如果你還沒有讀過 _One Second After_，你應該讀。
這是對 EMP 攻擊（或者在這種情況下，可能是 CME——冠狀物質拋射）後發生的事情的一個非常合理的虛構。
這是一幅可怕的寫照，描繪了如果電力（想想缺乏製冷和缺乏水過濾）、電信、交通同時停電，現代社會如何在不到 2 周的時間內演變成“蠅王”的局面。
它還告訴您，當 SHTF 時，唯一重要的貨幣是 1。食物，2.水，3.彈藥。
我把一部坐式電話放在法拉第包裝紙裡好幾年了，直到我失去了希望，認為另一端可能會有人接聽我的電話。😂🥲
2025年4月29日
The large, massive power outage that broke out in Portugal, Spain, and parts of France just shows the chaos that will occur when the Earth's magnetic field totally diminishes, as we are currently in a geomagnetic excursion.
The super markets are using electricity from their backup generators, people are buying food and water, the government and the experts don't know when the problem will be fixed, and it might last for a few days.
Apparently, this video is from Spain. Should we be worried? Thread (1/8)🧵
99.44K
熱門
排行
收藏