今日思考,7/30/25: 「口說無憑」在過去25年來,實際上一直是中國對美國及其盟友進行無限制戰爭的基石之一。 他們正確地計算出大西洋兩岸的有用白癡會被煮青蛙般地陷入無法挽回的境地。 感謝上帝,我們有一位能源部長 @SecretaryWright,明白我們需要所有形式的能源(以及天然氣和汽油之間的區別!)。
Michael Kao
Michael Kao2024年10月3日
Musings of the Day, 10/3/24: Talking the Green Energy Talk but not Walking the Green Energy Walk is literally another form of China’s “Unrestricted Warfare” against the West. What the Gretaverse doesn’t get is that Nature already invented the perfect Solar Battery, and it is called the HYDROCARBON MOLECULE. I addressed these issues in my recent Guest Lecture on “The Geopolitics of Energy” at Denison University. Look for it this weekend.
我喜歡 Bold Bowman 的地方在於她不會拐彎抹角,當事實改變時,她會直言不諱。 她指責 Pusillanimous Powell 的無法解釋的過早轉向,現在她又在指責 Parsimonious Powell 的新顯示出的固執。 你不得不喜歡這位反 Gretzky 的美聯儲主席: JPOW 是滑行到冰球曾經所在位置的大師…
Michael Kao
Michael Kao2024年11月21日
Bold Bowman is the only Fed Head brave enough to defy Pusillanimous Powell and will be remembered well for it.
特朗普今天對銅進行了 rug-pull。 拉克希米認為這是對石油的熱身,我也這麼認為,也許這就是 $XOP 已經在嗅探的東西。
這就是《逃避關稅通脹》論點的問題。 服務業已經出現了通縮。 零售商已經吸收了70%的關稅上漲,這是有充分理由的——對需求破壞的恐懼。 任何微小的商品通脹都將導致需求破壞,這意味著來自中國的無盡商品將被傾倒在歐盟和其他地區。 不可避免的結果是,歐盟和其他地區被迫對中國設立自己的關稅壁壘。 如果中國商品的過剩最終必須以更低的價格清倉,扣除關稅,那我不會感到驚訝,這將在服務通縮之上堆疊商品通縮。 中國的最終安全閥在哪裡? 人民幣/港元貶值。
Michael Kao
Michael Kao2025年4月28日
Musings of the Day, 4/28/25: As I am Chinese by descent, I get the whole angle of Chinese national pride in being able to “吃苦” (Eat Bitterness) and endure hardship. But the math is the math. When your entire economy is based upon keeping the Runaway Assembly Line humming, not because of Economic Profit or Demand, but because THERE IS NO OTHER WAY TO KEEP THE MASSES EMPLOYED, it really behooves you to find a way to make good with the US Consumer that buys 35% of GLOBAL CONSUMPTION. Talking with my Retailer CEO friends, PERMANENT decisions to relocate Supply Chains out of China are being made with every day that this Tariff War goes on. So yeah, the US is beholden to 4-year Election Cycles, yada yada, but China is at risk of SECULAR Economic Collapse if this Tariff War even goes on for ONE year. Trump 2.0 needs to provide a Face-Saving Exit Strategy for China, and Xi needs to take it.
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